Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 4.644204 5.535543 6.524364 7.698777 9.051465 10.556419 12.353105
2025-03-30 3.327691 4.522625 5.998261 7.935744 10.391568 13.377975 17.258775
2025-04-06 2.456556 3.749186 5.501033 8.003948 11.435139 15.914207 22.131865
2025-04-13 1.864506 3.159482 5.065439 7.995005 12.285912 18.225222 26.923236
2025-04-20 1.600412 2.962799 5.110579 8.614487 14.025361 21.867378 33.837129
2025-04-27 1.329058 2.679414 4.951885 8.871084 15.224037 24.822057 40.023148
2025-05-04 1.133933 2.473752 4.867079 9.205897 16.547148 28.047678 46.851470
2025-05-11 0.931365 2.201600 4.610623 9.198478 17.291885 30.420368 52.546773
2025-05-18 0.735380 1.890110 4.219255 8.881887 17.457027 31.853349 56.845860
2025-05-25 0.570354 1.597814 3.803892 8.445534 17.339038 32.777148 60.353588
2025-06-01 0.469458 1.422734 3.587974 8.349145 17.804421 34.699076 65.624569
2025-06-08 0.386986 1.268480 3.384644 8.241332 18.223170 36.554682 70.892149
2025-06-15 0.352792 1.235034 3.452396 8.722554 19.859224 40.766492 80.653864
2025-06-22 0.302055 1.140522 3.360549 8.848289 20.807937 43.810908 88.586740
2025-06-29 0.254570 1.039815 3.232933 8.873700 21.552034 46.530592 96.123849
2025-07-06 0.212917 0.942476 3.092761 8.846223 22.176666 49.063661 103.480817
2025-07-13 0.202917 0.949952 3.234868 9.515205 24.367649 54.799258 117.183668
2025-07-20 0.180393 0.904302 3.219822 9.792278 25.718079 58.959672 128.135897
2025-07-27 0.163141 0.872466 3.238216 10.155914 27.296192 63.682494 140.441678
2025-08-03 0.138521 0.800645 3.121192 10.147507 28.014144 66.690223 149.568058
2025-08-10 0.110633 0.701033 2.893242 9.802713 27.898941 67.946717 155.289516
2025-08-17 0.085658 0.600477 2.635017 9.327377 27.408782 68.357690 159.315244
2025-08-24 0.071155 0.543870 2.512614 9.222334 27.820145 70.738904 167.498182